5 Keys to Successful Betting
If you want to make money quickly, then you need to read this article – we will talk about the basics of rates, without knowing which, it is impossible to succeed in this activity. Namely, why it is necessary to take into account the theory of probability and focus on remote profit. If you want to try betting, try virtual sports betting.
5 principles, starting from which, you can change your approach to betting and start making money on them
#1 Most gamblers believe that the theory of probability in sports betting does not work, because. the result of a sports match is influenced by too many accidents, including a lot that depends on the human factor. A good example has been given that this is the same as thinking that gravity does not act on an airplane, since it allows it to fly, despite the mass of several hundred tons. The fact that the result of a sports match depends on many chances only means that we cannot know in advance and exactly the probability of this result. However, this does not prevent the laws of mathematics and probability theory from working, which exist independently of specific events, axiomatically, and in fact, are the basis of betting activity.
#2 An important aspect of the coin, which I bring up almost every time there is a dispute on the topic of remote profit. Excellent analogy. The probability of getting one of the sides of a perfect coin is 50% = 0.5 or 1/2, which means that on average each side should fall out once in two tosses. But in reality, you can flip a coin ten times, and all ten times, for example, tails will fall out. This nuance is called variance, and it is he who often misleads many players. In fact, the probability value means the frequency with which this event will occur in an infinite number of attempts. The fewer tests, the more (in percentage terms) the real result may deviate from the mathematical expectation. This is the dispersion.
#3 JB, “100% sure” or win-win bets do not exist. No one knows the real probability of a sporting event, not even the bookmaker. In simplified terms, we can say that he evaluates this very probability by giving a coefficient for a given event. And this estimate is approximately equal to 1/coefficient. A coefficient of 1.10 roughly reflects the probability of 1/1.10 = 90.9%. What can be described in words as an event that should occur on average 9 times out of 10. However, we must not forget about the dispersion. In a short distance, an event with a specified probability can happen even 20 times out of 20 (which often brings euphoria to inexperienced players who have caught such a successful series, which makes them believe that they are experts, and now they will simply tear the bookmakers apart). Or it may not happen two, three or even four times in a row, although the latter will happen quite rarely, but still it will, from time to time. 5 Keys to Successful Betting
If we assume that the bookmaker’s odds roughly correspond to the real probability of the event (which, based on the totality of several bets, will not be far from the truth), then the probability of an unsuccessful series of N lost bets in a row can be calculated using the formula: (1 – 1 / odds) to the power of N. For four consecutive losses of coefficient 1.10, we get the probability (1 – 1/1.10) to the power of 4 = 0.0000683 or, rounded, 1 time out of 14,000. However, remember about the dispersion, right? This does not mean at all that you can safely “skip” 13,999 times, and “hit” exactly the 14,000th. No, with absolutely equal chances, such a misfortune can happen to you both much later than the 14,000th time, or immediately – on the first try, and also more than once in some of the segments of 14,000 trials.
And it does not depend on how confident you are in this rate. Another common misconception is that many players believe that after losing one, and even more so several bets in a row, the probability of winning the next bet increases. And so they use progressive betting strategies, such as catch-up.
Alas, it’s not like that at all, it’s a psychological trap. In fact, the probability of winning your bet does not depend on how many times you lost before. The same thing after you rolled several “heads” in a row, the probability of throwing “tails” in the next roll of an ideal coin does not change and remains the same 50%.
That is why in no case do not climb to recoup. Know when to stop. All these stories, when a person believes that he cannot be so unlucky, puts more and more, increases the bet in the hope of covering everything lost, they don’t lead to good – you can generally remain bankrupt.
#4 You can’t draw firm conclusions about whether betting is profitable over the course of the game or not after just a hypothetical 10 tries. Due to variance, your actual result over a distance can be very different from what is shown over a short distance. The higher the coefficient – the higher the dispersion, the more you need to make bets to understand where they will lead you.
You must evaluate the profitability or loss of your bets precisely at a distance if you are seriously and for a long time going to earn money by betting on sports, and do not expect to catch a successful streak (“positive variance spike”), take the money and never return to betting in bookmakers offices.
It is also worth noting here that you should not judge not only your abilities, but also the success of any forecaster based on the short period of time on which he works.
5 Keys to Successful Betting
On the one hand, if he gave out a series of losses, you should not blame him and say that he is a loser, does not understand sports, and let him stop this horror altogether. Lose streaks happen to absolutely everyone, and anyone who says otherwise is a liar. The only question is their duration. And it is important that these periods overlap with success.
#5 Many people compare betting with a casino. And there, and there is excitement. And there, and there, many believe that it is impossible to win. However, there is one significant difference between a bookmaker and a casino, which radically changes things. If in casino games all the probabilities are known in advance, then no one, including bookmakers, is reliably known about the probabilities of real sporting events. Therefore, it is quite real, moreover, situations regularly occur when bookmakers give odds above 2 for events whose real probability is around 50%. What does profit at a distance mean for a player making such bets (or value bet, which I have spoken about more than once, it is “value betting” that gives distance profit). Indirect evidence that betting analysts are not at all sinless when assessing the probabilities of events and placing odds on them is the movement of the line, when, at times, the favorite in a match changes to the exact opposite over time. (5 Keys to Successful Betting)